Oddy
Analysis

5 Strategies We've Observed from Top Traders

Nov 28, 20247 min read

What We Analyzed

We studied thousands of trades from the top 100 wallets on our leaderboard. These traders consistently outperform the market. Here's what they do differently.

Strategy 1: Early Entry, Not Late Momentum

The Pattern

Top traders enter positions when markets are less liquid and prices haven't moved yet. They don't chase momentum.

The Data

Our analysis shows top traders enter positions an average of 3-5 days before major price movements. By the time most retail traders notice a market, the best entry points are gone.

How to Apply

  • Monitor newly created markets
  • Watch for top trader activity in low-volume markets
  • Don't chase markets that have already moved 20%+

Strategy 2: Contrarian Conviction

The Pattern

When consensus reaches extreme levels (85%+ YES or NO), top traders often take the opposite side.

The Data

Contrarian bets by top traders have a 62% win rate when consensus exceeds 85%. The market tends to overreact to recent news.

How to Apply

  • Look for markets with extreme consensus (>85%)
  • Check if any top traders are betting against the crowd
  • Consider the "what would have to happen" for the minority outcome
  • Size positions smaller on contrarian bets (higher risk)

Strategy 3: Specialization by Category

The Pattern

The best traders focus on specific market categories rather than trading everything.

The Data

  • Top 10 crypto-focused traders: 28% average ROI
  • Top 10 politics-focused traders: 22% average ROI
  • Generalist traders (no clear focus): 12% average ROI

Specialists outperform generalists by roughly 2x.

How to Apply

  • Identify your areas of knowledge
  • Focus on markets where you have an information edge
  • Avoid trading categories you don't understand
  • Track which categories perform best for you

Strategy 4: Position Sizing Discipline

The Pattern

Top traders rarely go "all in." They maintain consistent position sizes relative to their total capital.

The Data

Average position size for top traders: 2-5% of total portfolio. Maximum single position: rarely exceeds 10%.

How to Apply

  • Never risk more than 5% of capital on a single trade
  • Scale into positions rather than entering all at once
  • Larger positions only for highest-conviction trades
  • Always leave capital for new opportunities

Strategy 5: Exit Discipline

The Pattern

Top traders exit positions before resolution. They lock in profits rather than holding to the end.

The Data

  • Average exit timing: 5-10 days before market resolution
  • Profit-taking threshold: typically 30-50% gain
  • Loss-cutting threshold: typically 20-30% loss

How to Apply

  • Set profit targets before entering trades
  • Don't get greedy—take profits when available
  • Cut losses quickly; don't hope for recovery
  • Remember: a 95% probability still fails 1 in 20 times

Bonus: What Top Traders Don't Do

They Don't Chase

If a market has moved 30%+ in a day, top traders rarely enter. They wait for the next opportunity.

They Don't Overtrade

Average trade frequency for top 10 traders: 2-3 trades per week. Quality over quantity.

They Don't Ignore Fees

Transaction costs add up. Top traders factor fees into their expected value calculations.

They Don't Trade on Emotion

After a losing trade, top traders don't immediately enter a "revenge trade." They stick to their process.

Implementing These Strategies

Start Small

Don't try to implement all five strategies at once. Pick one and practice it for a month.

Track Everything

Keep a trading journal. Note your entry reasoning, position size, and exit timing. Review weekly.

Learn from Losses

Every loss is data. What went wrong? Was it the strategy or the execution?

Conclusion

Top traders succeed not through secret information, but through disciplined application of sound strategies. Early entry, contrarian conviction, specialization, position sizing, and exit discipline—these are learnable skills, not natural talents.

The Oddy leaderboard lets you see these strategies in action. Watch what top traders do, learn from their patterns, and develop your own edge.

Share this article

Ready to track top traders?

See what the most profitable traders are betting on right now.